Kemana Pergerakan Emas (01062009)

Berikut merupakan analisa market secara keseluruhan.

Perhatikan pada ST (SHORT TERM = A few day to few week) for gold target di mana price of gold can be up to 988-997 USD/oz.

Untuk memahami jadual yang saya post dibawah ini, sila perhatikan warna merah dan warna hijau. Jika ia bewarna merah, ia bermaksud, market berada di dalam down trend. Dan sekiranya ia berwarna hijau bermaksud market berada di dalam up trend.

Sebagai contoh:

Sila lihat pada row gold. Pada short term column, terdapat bearish dan bullish. Dan warna hijau berada pada 970 (bullish). Di sini ia bermaksud, sekiranya, price masih berada pada atas paras 970 ia akan bullish trend dan sekiranya price berada pada paras 964.65 USD/oz dan kebawah, menunjukan market berada di dalam keadaan bearish.

So secara conclusi nya:

Pada SHORT TERM (BULLISH) if price still above 970

pada MID TERM (BULLISH) if price still above 941.15

Pada LONG TERM (BULLISH) if price still above 750.00

Kemana Pergerakan Emas 29052009

Perhatikan Gold Triangle.

Malam tadi, Pergerakan emas berjaya melepasi 956 dan hanya mampu mencecah 965 USD/oz.
Oleh sebab tidak mempunyai kekuatan untuk melepasi 965 USD/oz, maka ianya akan bergerak ke arah selatan semula (downtrend for correction ) ke arah 960 USD/oz.

Perhatikahn point 951 USD/oz, sekiranya harga tidak dapat bergerak lebih rendah dari 951 USD/oz, maka ia akan melantun kembali ke 970>>980>>990 USD /oz !!

Ini kerana minggu ni dah merupakan akhir bulan, dan minggu depan awal bulan, dan selalunya, jika market uptrend, awal bulan akan lebih tinggi dari akhir bulan sebelumnya.

Wallahu alam..

Kemana Pergerakan Emas (28052009)

Ni charta pergerakan emas bagi short term.

Kat sini ada dua condition. Sekiranya emas tidak dapat melepasi 941usd/oz, ia akan menunjukkan uptrend mungkin ke 970.

tetapi sekiranya ianya dapat melepasi 941usd/oz, ia akan mencuba pula 935us/oz dimana 935usd/oz adalah titik support paling kuat, yang akan merubah trend secara keseluruhannya.

So perhatikan kedua2 kebarangkalian yang boleh berlaku..Dan sekiranya emas berada di atas paras 935usd/oz untuk beberapa hari ni, maka pembukaan awal june ia akan menunjukkan uptrend.

Projection fibo line menunjukkan emas bakal bergerak atau menyentuh 970 usd/oz.

Wallahualam

What Is Gold Scrap?

According to the website Gold Price, "Scrap gold can include any products that are made of gold or include gold in its manufacture." This includes everything from your grandmother's fancy gold ring to the gold crown that your dentist made for you. No matter what condition the gold is in, refiners can always recover its value.


Identification

1. Scrap gold is valued by its karat weight--10K, 14K, 18K, 22K or 24K. The karat value relates to the percentage of gold in the piece. The higher number of karats, the greater the percentage of gold. Understand that 24K is 100 percent gold, 10K is 40 percent gold. You will often find a marking on the clasp of your necklace or bracelet, on the underside of your ring, or on the back of your earrings that will indicate what karat your jewelry is made from. Dental gold ranges in karat value from 10 to 22 karats.

Types

2. Gold with a higher karat value is also softer and less durable than gold that is not 100 percent pure. Gold is mixed with other alloys, such as copper, silver, nickel and zinc, to add strength, color variety and durability.

Effects

3. The term scrap gold has gained in popularity recently due to the historic rise in the price of gold. In truth, there is nothing remotely scrap-like about gold. Gold in any form has value. Whether its broken, twisted, melted, scratched or worn, the beauty of gold is that it can be melted down and made into a brand new necklace, bar, coin or tooth.

Considerations

4. Selling scrap gold can be a lucrative way to make extra cash, given the current price of gold. Some of the scrap gold you own may include gemstones. If you plan to sell the gold, it is best to remove the stones first, especially if you are selling the gold online. The price of gold fluctuates daily, but there are dealers online, U.S. Gold Buyers among others, who list the price per pennyweight for the various karat values. Keep in mind that the dealers include a refining fee in their price, but shopping around is easy with a few mouse clicks. Selling your gold directly to a refiner or dealer is better than going through a middleman, like a jeweler or a pawn shop.

Misconceptions

5. Did you know your cell phone is made with gold? How about your computer? Many different kinds of electronics contain gold circuits, connectors and pins, so before you throw away that old phone, open it up and check out the metal parts. Anything gold plated is also considered scrap gold and has value to a dealer. Whether you are selling your gold or stockpiling for a rainy day, scrap gold is a treasure no matter where you find it.

Kemana Pergerakan Emas (26052009)

Berikut merupakan pergerakan emas secara short term H1.

SILA CLICK DI SINI UNTUK PERGERAKAN EMAS PADA H1

Dan antara ramalan lain yang dapat membantu:

Kemana arah pergerakan emas (25052009)

Okay.. kemana pergerakan emas seterusnya. Sila perhatikan pergerakan emas berikut: 

Ini merupakan pergerakan emas secara long term. Untuk mencapai paras USD1000.00/oz pergerakan emas akan menghadapi beberapa kali turun naik harga bagi membolehkan mengambil momentum untuk ke arah percubaan  usd1000.00 buat kali ke 3.

Berikut analysis for H8

If this count is correct, we are not likely to see Price of Gold below 940 for several more weeks, possibly in late June at the earliest.

After catching up with my studies, I'm seeing the significant potential for Price of gold to top this current wave up early this week (Monday?) and then start it's slide into early June, with a low as extreme as 880, before another rally takes off. My concern is that if it comes to pass, it may signify a C of (B) wave up into late June/early July, with a Major wave (C) down to come there after into Aug-Nov. Ending somewhere between 640-750.

I see a USD bullish count that could make for a rally back up to 94.70 - 96.51, however for this to be accomplished, stocks AND PMs would have to sell off hard. A serious general tax-hike threat might do it, along with an excise tax on gold bullion purchases? I'll try to plot this count soon.

Kemana Pergerakan Emas (21052009)

Kemana emas memilih jalannya..perhatikan analisis dibawah ini:

CLICK DI SINI UNTUK H4

Emas memilih jalan untuk bullish kerana berjaya melepasi 930.

Emas kemungkinan akan bergerak sehingga ke 950 sebelum bergerak turun kembali untuk mengambil titik support agar membolehkan ia melantun kembali melepasi 950. Jadi..kene tegok resistance dan support pada ketika itu.

Penanda aras stoich, belum menunjukan 100% oversell, so trend masih lagi bullish.

Perhatikan graf di bawah ini untuk crude oil. Emas dan crude oil ni dah couple. pergerakan crude oil juga menunjukkan uptrend.

Kemana Pergerakkan emas (20052009)

Sila perhatikan pergerakan emas dengan di bawah:

CLICK UNTUK PERGERAKAN EMAS BAGI TIMEFRAME H1:

Dari pergerakkan emas pada time frame h1, bagi short term emas akan menghadapi kenaikkan sehingga 928-930. Di sini pergerakkan emas mempunyai dua kebaragkalian, sekiranya emas dapat melepasi 930, maka pergerakan emas akan terus bullish selepas ini dan sekiranya pergerakan emas tidak melepasi 930, maka emas akan bergerak ke 911 >>>907, walau bagaimana pun perlu melepasi pivot line 920  dahulu. 

Secara conclusinya, for H1 bullish

CLICK UNTUK PERGERAKAN EMAS BAGI TIMEFRAME H4:

walaubagaimana pun pergerakan untuk h4, telah menunjukkan bearish. walau bagaimana pun, perhatikan dahulu h1, sekiranya tidak dapat melepasi 930, maka confirm untuk H4 bearish.

antara titik penting:

Resistance 1 : 928 (kene lepas untuk membolehkan emas terus bullish, kalau x lepas sebaliknya terjadi.

Resistance 2: 939

Resistance 3: 946.

Pivot: 920 (kene confirm melepasi untuk membolehkan harga terus jatuh)

Support 1: 918

Support 2: 911

support 3: 907

 (monthly pivot: 894.97 melepasi paras ni ia akan jatuh lagi, tak lepas considered as bull trap)

however, titik penentuan ialah pada 930..sekiranya tidak melepasi 2-3 hari ni..maka harga akan jatuh kemungkinan ker 907. Ia juga bergantung kepada harga minyak dunia, kerana harga minyak dunia kini dah couple dengan harga emas.

Kemana arah pergerakan emas (19052009)

Okay,setelah kita perhatikan pergerakan emas pada hari ini, didapati emas tidak dapat melepasi point 935 USD/oz dan kemungkinan besar ianya akan bergerak ke arah 914-907USD/oz.

Perhatikan realtime graph berikut pada time frame H4: 

CLICK DISINI UNTUK TIME FRAME H4.

CLICK DISINI UNTUK TIME FRAME D1

Jika diperhatikan indicator stoich juga sudah mencapai over sell pada H4

Dan comparekan denagan timeframe D1:.kemana pergerakan emas dalam 3 hari ni?

I should also point out that if this Gold drop exceeds 906 and/or 3 days, then the deep v rally is in trouble.

Point2 yang perlu diperhatikan:

Support 1: 924.57 (dah lepas)

Support 2: 919.37 (dah lepas)

Support 3: 915.03

Pivot: 929.67

Resistance 1: 935.63 ( x lepas)

Resistance 2: 939.97

Resistance 3: 945.63

Gold: The Once and Future Money

Emas : Sebagai Wang Masa Lampau dan Wang Yang Akan Datang; demikian judul tulisan ini yang saya ambilkan dari judul buku yang ditulis oleh Nathan Lewis (John Wiley & Son, 2007) seorang senior economist pada sebuah perusahaan Asset Management di New York. Dia juga aktif dalam penulisan di media financial kenamaan seperti Financial Times dan the Wall Street Journal. Karena buku ini terbit tahun 2007 – jadi masih up to date sebagai ukuran buku ekonnomi.

Buku ini terdiri dari tiga bahagian utama, Bahagian Pertama membahas wang dalam berbagai bentuknya. Bahagian Kedua membahas sejarah wang Amerika Syarikat, dan Bahagian Ketiga membahas Krisis Mata Wang di Seluruh Dunia – termasuk diantaranya diulas krisis serius di Asia akhir tahun 90-an.

Yang menarik dari buku ini adalah bahwa meskipun yang penulis bukan seorang muslim, dalam hal wang dia memiliki pemikiran yang lurus. Dalam salah satu kesimpulan nya dia menulis seperti ini “ Mungkin perlu waktu beberapa tahun atau beberapa puluh tahun, tetapi era wang kertas perlahan lahan akan berakhir; Dunia tidak memiliki pilihan lain kecuali kembali ke hard currency. Manfaat dari hard currency sungguh luar biasa. System hard currency masa depan akan berdasarkan emas, sama keadaan dengan yang terjadi di masa lampau”.

Kalau Nathan Lewis mungkin belum terlalu terkenal, jadi pendapatnya biasa saja tidak dianggap oleh para pelaku ekonomi zaman ini; tetapi siapa yang tidak kenal John Naisbitt – yang di dunia barat dianggap kaya dan di anggap sebagai ‘dewa’  ekonomi modern karena prediksi dia tentang trend perekonomian dalam beberapa bukunya selama 20 tahun terakhir terbukti  ? Apa kata John Nasibitt tentang wang ini di bukunya terakhir (Mindset) ?. Menurut dia monopoly terakhir yang akan segera ditinggalkan oleh umat manusia adalah monopoly wang kertas yang dikeluarkan oleh suatu negara. masyarakat tidak akan lagi mempercayai mata wang kertas dan pindah ke yang dia sebut mata wang private. Apa itu mata wang private ? yaitu benda-benda real yang memang memiliki nilai intrinsik.

Sayang sekali Natha Lewis dan John Naisbitt bukan orang Islam, kalau dia tahu bahwa Islam memiliki system wang Dinar/Dirham- sejak ribuan tahun lalu sampai akhir zaman – pasti dia akan tahu betapa benarnya agama ini. Wallahu alam.

Gold Bearish Trend Continues.

GOLD LONG TERM

Interesting phenomena with the 200 day moving average line. The simple average line has turned downward even though the price of gold remains above the line. This is probably the result of the removal of the data 201 days ago and replaced by the data today, with both events given equal weight towards the calculation of the moving average. Using the weighted moving average line the more recent data is given greater weight towards the calculation of the moving average and the line slope remains positive.

Since issuing a bear signal the long term point and figure (P&F) chart has set up a support at the $870 level. $855 would be a new bear low for this latest trend. However, the chart has also set up a pattern that could cause the P&F to reverse itself and go back into a long term bull mode. At this time that would require a move to the $930 level and give us an initial projection to $1050. For now we’ll just have to wait and see which way the wind is blowing and which direction the price will take. For now the bear projection remains to the $705 level.

As for what the normal indicators are telling us, well they are not yet bearish as is the P&F chart. The gold price remains above its positive sloping (weighted) moving average line although it is heading towards the line. The momentum indicator remains just above its neutral line in the positive zone but just below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is showing more weakness and remains below its negative sloping trigger line. As far as the normal trend and strength indicators are concerned the long term rating remains BULLISH for now.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Very often trend and support/resistance lines in momentum indicators are more accurate or provide earlier signals than they do in the price charts. An example is seen in the chart here. The up trend line in the momentum indicator was broken a month before the gold price up trend line. Not drawn but a down trend line on the momentum indicator has already been broken. Are we in for an upside break in the price?

The gold price continues to show weakness and especially when combined with the very low volume activity. Although a clear support is shown in the price (and momentum) one starts to wonder about its viability. Questions, questions!

Going through the routine we see that the recent price action continued below the intermediate term moving average line and the line slope continues downward. The momentum indicator is playing around with its neutral line and closed the week just below the line in its negative zone. It is also just a shade below its negative trigger line. For now the action remains inside that intermediate term down trending channel. What can I say but that the intermediate term rating is BEARISH, at this time. With the price action trapped between both moving average lines one has to give.

SHORT TERM

Short term it looks like we are going through a little period of negative trend. It might still go a little lower but here’s hoping it stops above the support. With the price below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator in its negative zone about the only non-confirmation we have of a negative trend is the very short term moving average line. It has not yet crossed the short term line on the down side but is closing the gap fast. The short term must be thought of as BEARISH at this time.

As for the direction of least resistance, that would be to the down side although there is some indication during Friday’s action that it might turn around.