Sabtu, 3 Oktober 2009

Pergerakan emas seterusnya (5-10-2009)

Assalamualaikum

Hmm..maaf hampir sebulan saya tak menganalisa. Hmm biaselah macam macam hal dalam hidup ni..Busy memanjang..tambahan pulak bulan ibadah..memaksimakan ibadah dalam bulan mulia.

Oh ya..kepada follower blog ni saya ingin mengucapkan Selamat Hari Raya Maaf Zahir dan Batin. Segala kesalahan di pohon juga. Hmm..kami sekarang ni tengah dalam proses menstruktur balik kembali company Ezy Fine Gold yang tercinta..hehe..Nama Ezy Fine Gold ni merupakan satu nama yang begitu mempunyai sentimental value yang tidak ternilai harganya..Insya Allah..doakan kami ya..Mudah-mudahan Allah yang MAha pemurah lagi Maha Pemberi Rezeki meluaskan pintu-pintu rezeki kita semua..amin ya Razzak..

Oh ya..bagaimana pergerakan emas seterusnya? Hmm kita perhatikan analisa tersebut ya:

Gold ST: the upside prevails
Our pivot point stands at 975.

Our preference: As long as 975 is not broken down, we favour an upmove with 1033 and then 1070 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: Only the downside breakout of 975 will invalidate our bullish scenario. In this case, a decline should shape towards 930 at first, and then 850.

Comment: The break above 975 is a positive signal that has opened a path to 1033.

Trend: ST limited rise; MT bullish.

Supports and resistances:
1131 ***
1070 **
1033 ***
1004 last
975 **
930 **
850 ***

Rabu, 9 September 2009

Ahad, 6 September 2009

Pergerakan emas seterusnya (7-09-2009)

Gold ST: the upside prevails

Our pivot point stands at 925.

Our preference: As long as 925 is not broken down, we favour an upmove with 1000 and then 1033 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: A break below 925 would not invalidate the medium-term bullish configuration, but the index could decline towards its next support at 870.

Comment: The daily technical indicators are bullish but are close to resistances.

Trend: ST rise; MT bullish.

Supports and resistances:
1120 ***
1033 **
1000 ***
990 last
925 **
870 **
800 ***

Sabtu, 22 Ogos 2009

Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (23-08-2009)

Gold ST: caution
Our pivot point stands at 910.

Our preference: As long as 910 is not broken down, we favour an upmove with 960 and then 973 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: A break below 910 would not invalidate the medium-term bullish configuration, but the index could decline towards its next support at 880.

Comment: Daily indicators are positive but lack momentum, we are cautious.

Trend: ST limited decline; MT bullish.

Supports and resistances:
1000 ***
973 **
960 ***
953 last
910 **
880 **
850 ***


Isnin, 17 Ogos 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (17082009)

GOLD (Spot) intraday: Under pressure

Pivot: 950.90

Our Preference: SHORT positions @ 948 with targets @ 940 & 935.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 950.9 will call for a rebound towards 960.4 & 972.

Comment: the false breakout of 950.9 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 930.

Trend: ST Ltd downside; MT Bullish

Key levels Comment

972** Intraday resistance
960.4** Intraday resistance
950.9** Intraday pivot point
942 Last
940*** Intraday support
935** Intraday support
930*** Intraday support

Khamis, 13 Ogos 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (14082009)

Pivot: 944.50

Our Preference: LONG positions @ 947 with targets @ 952.4 & 957.3.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 944.5 will open the way to 940 & 932.5.

Comment: the immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.

Trend: ST Ltd upside; MT Bullish

Key levels Comment

962.5* Fib retracement (50%)
957.3*** Intraday resistance
952.4** Intraday resistance
951 Last
944.5*** Intraday pivot point
940** Intraday support
932.5*** Intraday support

Selasa, 11 Ogos 2009

Pergerakkan Emas seterusnya...(11082009)

Analysis for M30 to H1:

Have two conditions..uptrend or downtrend???

Pivot: 948.80

Our Preference: LONG positions above 948.8 with 962.5 & 967.5 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 948.8 will call for a slide towards 943.4 & 940.

Comment: the 948.8 key support (50% retracement) is expected to favour a recovery.

Trend: ST Ltd upside; MT Bullish

Key levels Comment

972* Intraday resistance

967.5** Intraday resistance

962.5** Intraday resistance

956.05 Last

948.8*** Intraday pivot point

943.4** Fib retracement (61.8%)

940** Intraday support




H4 Analysis




Daily Analysis




Weekly Analysis

Jumaat, 17 Julai 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (17072009)

Gold rose above level 922 (above the higher bound of “a-a+” downtrend), what cleared the road up to resistance level 939 (the higher bound of “B-B+” trend). In case the gold rises above level 942, it will get to level 952. On the other hand, if the gold rebounds from current level 938, it will get down to support 919.




DAILY GRAPH

Having stopped slightly below the strategic resistance level 998 (“Z” trend line), gold eventually formed up a “double top” trend-turning figure at H4 graph (denoted as “a-a+” trend) and executed it after getting under the level 967. Such an event is a very important signal for “B-B+” daily trend’s turn. I’m expecting its lower bound to be broken shortly and, if gold goes under the level 945 (under the “B” trend line), the uptrend will be changed to downtrend and gold will set the target of lowering to support level 903.



MONTHLY GRAPH



Isnin, 6 Julai 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (07072009)

Assalamualaikum..

Maaf kerana hampir dua minggu tidak mengemaskini blog ini..Maklumlah sibuk dengan jual beli emas ..hampir tidak ada masa untuk mengadap PC..:P

Okay, ni posting saya yang tebaru..

Sila lihat graph H4 ni:(Sila klik pada graf untuk mendapatkan imej penuh)




Ini merupakan graph pada time frame H4. Ketika graph ini di ambil, harga emas berada pada tahap 922.70 usd/oz. Harga emas ektika ini berada di dalam keadaan uptrend dimana puncak yang boleh dicapai oleh harga emas ini ialah pada 945.70 usd/oz.


Dan perhatikan bagi graph D1 berikut:(sila klik pada graf untuk mendapatkan imej penuh)




Pada graph D1, kita dapat lihat bahawa , pergerakan emas akan mengalami sedikit sebnayak prosess turun naik sehingga puncak yang boleh di capai ketika analisis ini di buat adalah pada point 990usd/oz

walau bagaimana pun pada titik time frame MN, menunjukkan harga emas boleh mencapai 1035usd/oz pada tahun ini..

Walahu alam

Isnin, 22 Jun 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (22062009)

Kemana pergerakan emas seterusnya..

Sekarang ni..harga emas berlegar-legar pada 934-932..lebih kepada sideway trend..Pergerakan emas ketika ini sedang mencari arah untuk bullish atau bearish..

Berikut adalah charta pergerakan emas setakat ini dan huraian teknikal:

Khamis, 18 Jun 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (18062009)

Does gold will follow the pattern?




H4 graph

Gold is being traded below level 944 (below the neckline of “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure), what speaks in favor of getting to target level 903 in nearest future (within the “a-a+” uptrend). Resistance is found at level 944 once again.



Daily Graph

Having stopped slightly below the strategic resistance level 998 (“Z” trend line), gold eventually formed up a “double top” trend-turning figure at H4 graph (denoted as “a-a+” trend) and executed it after getting under the level 967. Such an event is a very important signal for “B-B+” daily trend’s turn. I’m expecting its lower bound to be broken shortly and, if gold goes under the level 945 (under the “B” trend line), the uptrend will be changed to downtrend and gold will set the target of lowering to support level 903.




Monthly Graph

Isnin, 15 Jun 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (15062009)

Pergerakan emas akan mengalami sedikit correction untuk uptrend..But still major in bearish condition. This uptrend can be up to 950Usd/oz and later rebounce back to 930 ..903 is still valid if and only if the price does not break 950USD/oz


H4 Graph

Gold had dropped below level 940 (below the neckline), stating that “head and shoulders” trend-turning figure had been executed. Now the market has its target set to level 903, which is supposed to be reached in nearest future. Besides, gold is being traded below the lower bound of daily uptrend, what confirms this scenario is likely to take place.


Daily Graph

Having stopped slightly below the strategic resistance level 998 (“Z” trend line), gold eventually formed up a “double top” trend-turning figure at H4 graph (denoted as “a-a+” trend) and executed it after getting under the level 967. Such an event is a very important signal for “B-B+” daily trend’s turn. I’m expecting its lower bound to be broken shortly and, if gold goes under the level 945 (under the “B” trend line), the uptrend will be changed to downtrend and gold will set the target of lowering to support level 903.



Monthly Graph

Selasa, 9 Jun 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (09062009)

Where price of gold choose it ways?

H4 Graph


Gold dropped below level 945 (below the lower bound of “B-B+” uptrend). That cleared the way for further dropping to support level 903. Resistance is currently at level 954. In case of upwards motion, we can’t say that current downtrend is changed to uptrend until gold rises above level 977; and if so, gold will reach key resistance 997 (“Z” trend line). The interval between levels 955 and 977 is a neutral zone. While staying in that zone, either direction of further motion can’t be guaranteed. For now, we keep waiting until support 903 is reached.



Daily Graph

Having stopped slightly below the strategic resistance level 998 (“Z” trend line), gold eventually formed up a “double top” trend-turning figure at H4 graph (denoted as “a-a+” trend) and executed it after getting under the level 967. Such an event is a very important signal for “B-B+” daily trend’s turn. I’m expecting its lower bound to be broken shortly and, if gold goes under the level 945 (under the “B” trend line), the uptrend will be changed to downtrend and gold will set the target of lowering to support level 903



Monthly Graph

Isnin, 8 Jun 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas Seterusnya (0806200)

Assalamualaikum,

Sekitar ramalam pergerakan emas seterusnya..


Khamis, 4 Jun 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas (04052009)

H4 Graph

Having stopped slightly below the strategic resistance level 998 (“Z” trend line), gold eventually formed a “double top” trend-turning figure (denoted as “a-a+” trend) and executed it after getting under the level 967. Now the target of lowering is set to level 951 (“B-B+” trend’s lower bound), but there is a support at level 958 on the way down. However, that support is made up of “K” and “V” trend lines intersection; it is supposed to bring only a short-term influence (if any) because “double top” figure always develops a very strong impulse. In addition, there is a heavy resistance at level 970. So, we’re waiting for gold to be at level 951.




Daily Graph

Having stopped slightly below the strategic resistance level 998 (“Z” trend line), gold eventually formed up a “double top” trend-turning figure at H4 graph (denoted as “a-a+” trend) and executed it after getting under the level 967. Such an event is a very important signal for “B-B+” daily trend’s turn. I’m expecting its lower bound to be broken shortly and, if gold goes under the level 945 (under the “B” trend line), the uptrend will be changed to downtrend and gold will set the target of lowering to support level 903.




Monthly Graph

Rabu, 3 Jun 2009

Kemana Pergarakan Emas (03062009)

Perhatikan graf berikut:

My target still 988 to 997 USD/oz for Short



Ahad, 31 Mei 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas (01062009)

Berikut merupakan analisa market secara keseluruhan.

Perhatikan pada ST (SHORT TERM = A few day to few week) for gold target di mana price of gold can be up to 988-997 USD/oz.

Untuk memahami jadual yang saya post dibawah ini, sila perhatikan warna merah dan warna hijau. Jika ia bewarna merah, ia bermaksud, market berada di dalam down trend. Dan sekiranya ia berwarna hijau bermaksud market berada di dalam up trend.

Sebagai contoh:

Sila lihat pada row gold. Pada short term column, terdapat bearish dan bullish. Dan warna hijau berada pada 970 (bullish). Di sini ia bermaksud, sekiranya, price masih berada pada atas paras 970 ia akan bullish trend dan sekiranya price berada pada paras 964.65 USD/oz dan kebawah, menunjukan market berada di dalam keadaan bearish.

So secara conclusi nya:

Pada SHORT TERM (BULLISH) if price still above 970
pada MID TERM (BULLISH) if price still above 941.15
Pada LONG TERM (BULLISH) if price still above 750.00


Jumaat, 29 Mei 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas 29052009

Perhatikan Gold Triangle.

Malam tadi, Pergerakan emas berjaya melepasi 956 dan hanya mampu mencecah 965 USD/oz.
Oleh sebab tidak mempunyai kekuatan untuk melepasi 965 USD/oz, maka ianya akan bergerak ke arah selatan semula (downtrend for correction ) ke arah 960 USD/oz.

Perhatikahn point 951 USD/oz, sekiranya harga tidak dapat bergerak lebih rendah dari 951 USD/oz, maka ia akan melantun kembali ke 970>>980>>990 USD /oz !!

Ini kerana minggu ni dah merupakan akhir bulan, dan minggu depan awal bulan, dan selalunya, jika market uptrend, awal bulan akan lebih tinggi dari akhir bulan sebelumnya.

Wallahu alam..

Rabu, 27 Mei 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas (28052009)

Ni charta pergerakan emas bagi short term.

Kat sini ada dua condition. Sekiranya emas tidak dapat melepasi 941usd/oz, ia akan menunjukkan uptrend mungkin ke 970.

tetapi sekiranya ianya dapat melepasi 941usd/oz, ia akan mencuba pula 935us/oz dimana 935usd/oz adalah titik support paling kuat, yang akan merubah trend secara keseluruhannya.

So perhatikan kedua2 kebarangkalian yang boleh berlaku..Dan sekiranya emas berada di atas paras 935usd/oz untuk beberapa hari ni, maka pembukaan awal june ia akan menunjukkan uptrend.

Projection fibo line menunjukkan emas bakal bergerak atau menyentuh 970 usd/oz.

Wallahualam




Selasa, 26 Mei 2009

What Is Gold Scrap?

    According to the website Gold Price, "Scrap gold can include any products that are made of gold or include gold in its manufacture." This includes everything from your grandmother's fancy gold ring to the gold crown that your dentist made for you. No matter what condition the gold is in, refiners can always recover its value.

    Identification

  1. Scrap gold is valued by its karat weight--10K, 14K, 18K, 22K or 24K. The karat value relates to the percentage of gold in the piece. The higher number of karats, the greater the percentage of gold. Understand that 24K is 100 percent gold, 10K is 40 percent gold. You will often find a marking on the clasp of your necklace or bracelet, on the underside of your ring, or on the back of your earrings that will indicate what karat your jewelry is made from. Dental gold ranges in karat value from 10 to 22 karats.
  2. Types

  3. Gold with a higher karat value is also softer and less durable than gold that is not 100 percent pure. Gold is mixed with other alloys, such as copper, silver, nickel and zinc, to add strength, color variety and durability.
  4. Effects

  5. The term scrap gold has gained in popularity recently due to the historic rise in the price of gold. In truth, there is nothing remotely scrap-like about gold. Gold in any form has value. Whether its broken, twisted, melted, scratched or worn, the beauty of gold is that it can be melted down and made into a brand new necklace, bar, coin or tooth.
  6. Considerations

  7. Selling scrap gold can be a lucrative way to make extra cash, given the current price of gold. Some of the scrap gold you own may include gemstones. If you plan to sell the gold, it is best to remove the stones first, especially if you are selling the gold online. The price of gold fluctuates daily, but there are dealers online, U.S. Gold Buyers among others, who list the price per pennyweight for the various karat values. Keep in mind that the dealers include a refining fee in their price, but shopping around is easy with a few mouse clicks. Selling your gold directly to a refiner or dealer is better than going through a middleman, like a jeweler or a pawn shop.
  8. Misconceptions

  9. Did you know your cell phone is made with gold? How about your computer? Many different kinds of electronics contain gold circuits, connectors and pins, so before you throw away that old phone, open it up and check out the metal parts. Anything gold plated is also considered scrap gold and has value to a dealer. Whether you are selling your gold or stockpiling for a rainy day, scrap gold is a treasure no matter where you find it.

Isnin, 25 Mei 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas (26052009)

Berikut merupakan pergerakan emas secara short term H1.

Dan antara ramalan lain yang dapat membantu:



Ahad, 24 Mei 2009

Kemana arah pergerakan emas (25052009)

Okay.. kemana pergerakan emas seterusnya. Sila perhatikan pergerakan emas berikut: 

Ini merupakan pergerakan emas secara long term. Untuk mencapai paras USD1000.00/oz pergerakan emas akan menghadapi beberapa kali turun naik harga bagi membolehkan mengambil momentum untuk ke arah percubaan  usd1000.00 buat kali ke 3.

Berikut analysis for H8




If this count is correct, we are not likely to see Price of Gold below 940 for several more weeks, possibly in late June at the earliest.

After catching up with my studies, I'm seeing the significant potential for Price of gold to top this current wave up early this week (Monday?) and then start it's slide into early June, with a low as extreme as 880, before another rally takes off. My concern is that if it comes to pass, it may signify a C of (B) wave up into late June/early July, with a Major wave (C) down to come there after into Aug-Nov. Ending somewhere between 640-750.

I see a USD bullish count that could make for a rally back up to 94.70 - 96.51, however for this to be accomplished, stocks AND PMs would have to sell off hard. A serious general tax-hike threat might do it, along with an excise tax on gold bullion purchases? I'll try to plot this count soon.



Rabu, 20 Mei 2009

Kemana Pergerakan Emas (21052009)

Kemana emas memilih jalannya..perhatikan analisis dibawah ini:





CLICK DI SINI UNTUK H4

Emas memilih jalan untuk bullish kerana berjaya melepasi 930.
Emas kemungkinan akan bergerak sehingga ke 950 sebelum bergerak turun kembali untuk mengambil titik support agar membolehkan ia melantun kembali melepasi 950. Jadi..kene tegok resistance dan support pada ketika itu.
Penanda aras stoich, belum menunjukan 100% oversell, so trend masih lagi bullish.

Perhatikan graf di bawah ini untuk crude oil. Emas dan crude oil ni dah couple. pergerakan crude oil juga menunjukkan uptrend.










Kemana Pergerakkan emas (20052009)

Sila perhatikan pergerakan emas dengan di bawah:


Dari pergerakkan emas pada time frame h1, bagi short term emas akan menghadapi kenaikkan sehingga 928-930. Di sini pergerakkan emas mempunyai dua kebaragkalian, sekiranya emas dapat melepasi 930, maka pergerakan emas akan terus bullish selepas ini dan sekiranya pergerakan emas tidak melepasi 930, maka emas akan bergerak ke 911 >>>907, walau bagaimana pun perlu melepasi pivot line 920  dahulu. 

Secara conclusinya, for H1 bullish


walaubagaimana pun pergerakan untuk h4, telah menunjukkan bearish. walau bagaimana pun, perhatikan dahulu h1, sekiranya tidak dapat melepasi 930, maka confirm untuk H4 bearish.

antara titik penting:

Resistance 1 : 928 (kene lepas untuk membolehkan emas terus bullish, kalau x lepas sebaliknya terjadi.

Resistance 2: 939

Resistance 3: 946.

Pivot: 920 (kene confirm melepasi untuk membolehkan harga terus jatuh)

Support 1: 918

Support 2: 911

support 3: 907

 (monthly pivot: 894.97 melepasi paras ni ia akan jatuh lagi, tak lepas considered as bull trap)

however, titik penentuan ialah pada 930..sekiranya tidak melepasi 2-3 hari ni..maka harga akan jatuh kemungkinan ker 907. Ia juga bergantung kepada harga minyak dunia, kerana harga minyak dunia kini dah couple dengan harga emas.

Selasa, 19 Mei 2009

Kemana arah pergerakan emas (19052009)


Okay,setelah kita perhatikan pergerakan emas pada hari ini, didapati emas tidak dapat melepasi point 935 USD/oz dan kemungkinan besar ianya akan bergerak ke arah 914-907USD/oz.

Perhatikan realtime graph berikut pada time frame H4: 



Jika diperhatikan indicator stoich juga sudah mencapai over sell pada H4

Dan comparekan denagan timeframe D1:.kemana pergerakan emas dalam 3 hari ni?

I should also point out that if this Gold drop exceeds 906 and/or 3 days, then the deep v rally is in trouble.

Point2 yang perlu diperhatikan:

Support 1: 924.57 (dah lepas)
Support 2: 919.37 (dah lepas)
Support 3: 915.03

Pivot: 929.67

Resistance 1: 935.63 ( x lepas)
Resistance 2: 939.97
Resistance 3: 945.63

Sabtu, 16 Mei 2009

Gold: The Once and Future Money

Emas : Sebagai Wang Masa Lampau dan Wang Yang Akan Datang; demikian judul tulisan ini yang saya ambilkan dari judul buku yang ditulis oleh Nathan Lewis (John Wiley & Son, 2007) seorang senior economist pada sebuah perusahaan Asset Management di New York. Dia juga aktif dalam penulisan di media financial kenamaan seperti Financial Times dan the Wall Street Journal. Karena buku ini terbit tahun 2007 – jadi masih up to date sebagai ukuran buku ekonnomi.

Buku ini terdiri dari tiga bahagian utama, Bahagian Pertama membahas wang dalam berbagai bentuknya. Bahagian Kedua membahas sejarah wang Amerika Syarikat, dan Bahagian Ketiga membahas Krisis Mata Wang di Seluruh Dunia – termasuk diantaranya diulas krisis serius di Asia akhir tahun 90-an.

Yang menarik dari buku ini adalah bahwa meskipun yang penulis bukan seorang muslim, dalam hal wang dia memiliki pemikiran yang lurus. Dalam salah satu kesimpulan nya dia menulis seperti ini “ Mungkin perlu waktu beberapa tahun atau beberapa puluh tahun, tetapi era wang kertas perlahan lahan akan berakhir; Dunia tidak memiliki pilihan lain kecuali kembali ke hard currency. Manfaat dari hard currency sungguh luar biasa. System hard currency masa depan akan berdasarkan emas, sama keadaan dengan yang terjadi di masa lampau”.

Kalau Nathan Lewis mungkin belum terlalu terkenal, jadi pendapatnya biasa saja tidak dianggap oleh para pelaku ekonomi zaman ini; tetapi siapa yang tidak kenal John Naisbitt – yang di dunia barat dianggap kaya dan di anggap sebagai ‘dewa’  ekonomi modern karena prediksi dia tentang trend perekonomian dalam beberapa bukunya selama 20 tahun terakhir terbukti  ? Apa kata John Nasibitt tentang wang ini di bukunya terakhir (Mindset) ?. Menurut dia monopoly terakhir yang akan segera ditinggalkan oleh umat manusia adalah monopoly wang kertas yang dikeluarkan oleh suatu negara. masyarakat tidak akan lagi mempercayai mata wang kertas dan pindah ke yang dia sebut mata wang private. Apa itu mata wang private ? yaitu benda-benda real yang memang memiliki nilai intrinsik.

Sayang sekali Natha Lewis dan John Naisbitt bukan orang Islam, kalau dia tahu bahwa Islam memiliki system wang Dinar/Dirham- sejak ribuan tahun lalu sampai akhir zaman – pasti dia akan tahu betapa benarnya agama ini. Wallahu alam.

Ahad, 3 Mei 2009

Gold Bearish Trend Continues.

GOLD LONG TERM

Interesting phenomena with the 200 day moving average line. The simple average line has turned downward even though the price of gold remains above the line. This is probably the result of the removal of the data 201 days ago and replaced by the data today, with both events given equal weight towards the calculation of the moving average. Using the weighted moving average line the more recent data is given greater weight towards the calculation of the moving average and the line slope remains positive.

Since issuing a bear signal the long term point and figure (P&F) chart has set up a support at the $870 level. $855 would be a new bear low for this latest trend. However, the chart has also set up a pattern that could cause the P&F to reverse itself and go back into a long term bull mode. At this time that would require a move to the $930 level and give us an initial projection to $1050. For now we’ll just have to wait and see which way the wind is blowing and which direction the price will take. For now the bear projection remains to the $705 level.

As for what the normal indicators are telling us, well they are not yet bearish as is the P&F chart. The gold price remains above its positive sloping (weighted) moving average line although it is heading towards the line. The momentum indicator remains just above its neutral line in the positive zone but just below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator is showing more weakness and remains below its negative sloping trigger line. As far as the normal trend and strength indicators are concerned the long term rating remains BULLISH for now.

INTERMEDIATE TERM


Very often trend and support/resistance lines in momentum indicators are more accurate or provide earlier signals than they do in the price charts. An example is seen in the chart here. The up trend line in the momentum indicator was broken a month before the gold price up trend line. Not drawn but a down trend line on the momentum indicator has already been broken. Are we in for an upside break in the price?

The gold price continues to show weakness and especially when combined with the very low volume activity. Although a clear support is shown in the price (and momentum) one starts to wonder about its viability. Questions, questions!



Going through the routine we see that the recent price action continued below the intermediate term moving average line and the line slope continues downward. The momentum indicator is playing around with its neutral line and closed the week just below the line in its negative zone. It is also just a shade below its negative trigger line. For now the action remains inside that intermediate term down trending channel. What can I say but that the intermediate term rating is BEARISH, at this time. With the price action trapped between both moving average lines one has to give.

SHORT TERM

Short term it looks like we are going through a little period of negative trend. It might still go a little lower but here’s hoping it stops above the support. With the price below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator in its negative zone about the only non-confirmation we have of a negative trend is the very short term moving average line. It has not yet crossed the short term line on the down side but is closing the gap fast. The short term must be thought of as BEARISH at this time.

As for the direction of least resistance, that would be to the down side although there is some indication during Friday’s action that it might turn around.

Selasa, 28 April 2009

Bagaimana wang dicipta ?

Wang diwujudkan melalui dua cara :

1. Wang diwujudkan melalui pinjaman dan membelanjakannya.Fractional Reserve Banking. (Money is literally borrowed and spent into existence.)

2. Wang dicetak atas kertas kosong tanpa sandaran apa - apa oleh Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve memiliki kuasa :

a) Menentukan kadar faedah.
b) Membeli aset – aset seperti hutang kerajaan (government debt) dengan wang kertas baru yang dicetak.

Apabila kadar faedah berada dalam tahap yang sangat rendah , ia akan mengalakkan korporat dan individu berbelanja.
Majoriti wang yang diwujudkan datang dari pinjaman dan perbelanjaan sektor swasta dan individu.
Wang tunai ( cash flow) 5 % , Wang elektronik ( cek, akaun dll ) 95 %.

Federal Reserve boleh mencipta wang baru hanya dengan menekan nombor pada keyboard komputer dan membeli apa sahaja aset yang mereka perlukan. Mereka boleh mencipta berapa pun jumlah wang yang diperlukan untuk menjalankan ekonomi bagi menyelesaikan hutang lama dan baru. Mereka akan mencetak wang baru kerana bagi mereka inflasi esok hari adalah lebih baik dari keruntuhan terus sistem ekonomi sekarang.

Perbendaharaan US (U.S. Treasury) berbelanja dengan US $450 Billion defisit ( belanja lebih dari aset ). Bank Pusat hanya mencetak wang itu. Secara global bank bank pusat mencetak wang baru berjumlah $800 Billion. Sebab itu Federal Reserve Governor, Ben S. Bernanke, suka menamakannya dengan wang helikopter "Helicopter Money".

40 % dari hutang perbedaharaan US (U.S. Treasury debt) dipegang oleh orang luar. Bank bank Pusat Asia memegang lebih dari US$ 1 Trillion aset US.
Apabila lebih banyak wang yang dicipta ini mengejar barangan yang sama, tidak dapat tidak mestilah berlaku inflasi.

Jumlah defisit yang besar memberi jalan kepada Bank Pusat luar mencetak wang mereka. Syarikat luar mendapatkan dollar melalui ekspot barangan mereka ke US. Bank Pusat luar mengeluarkan mata wang mereka untuk ditukarkan dengan dollar, dan dengan dollar tersebut mereka membeli hutang Perbendaharaan US (U.S. treasury debt). Mudah sahaja, wang baru pulak dicipta di negara tersebut.

Contohnya China, Bank Pusat China mencetak wang baru untuk membeli dollar. Dollar didapati dari ekspot China ke US, dollar datang dari US Treasury. Ini menyebabkan berlakunya inflasi 5% setahun di China.

Apabila US berbelanja defisit , dollar baru akan tercipta. Setiap kali dollar baru bertukar tangan ke Negara asing. Bank Pusat Negara tersebut pulak mencipta wang baru untuk ditukar dengan dollar.

Semua Negara bergantung kepada perbelajaan US.
Apabila rakyak US tidak berbelanja, seluruh dunia tidak bergerak.

Begitu besarnya pergantungan seluruh dunia kepada Amerika Syarikat !

• Sumber:www.dirham2dinar.com

Selasa, 21 April 2009

Gold Market Update

Both gold and silver have suffered technical deterioration over the past week with the result that they are now close to aborting the short to medium-term bullish scenario that was set out in the last update. Meanwhile, large Precious Metals shares are on the point of breaking down from their shallow uptrends in force from December - January after further losses this past week.

As we can see on its 6-month gold has not broken down below key support - yet, and it may even be at a buy spot right now, however, there are two external factors suggesting that the risk of it breaking down has increased significantly. One is that silver has broken below its mid-March hammer low, which is a bearish development, and the other is that the dollar looks like it may be completing a minor base area.

Returning to consideration of the gold chart we can see that last week's fall has not as yet resulted in it breaking below its early April low or below the 200-day moving average or below the support level shown. This confluence of supporting factors means that this is a very important zone, so if gold breaks below it, it could plunge way below the support of the downtrend channel shown. Traders may therefore want to set stops accordingly.

Ahad, 19 April 2009

Keahlian Koperasi Ushawan Emas Malaysia Berhad dibuka kepada orang ramai.

Keahlian menjadi ahli Koperasi Usahawan Emas Malaysia Berhad (KUEMAS) kini di buka. Sila buat pendaftaran dengan memuat turun borang yang disertakan. Sila rujuk nota keanggotaan.
Maklumat lanjut bolehlah layari http://kuemas.wordpress.com/

MEMO PENDAFTARAN

Pendaftaran keanggotan masih terbuka kepada semua yang berminat (18 tahun ke atas).
Sila muat turun dan isi borang keanggotaan.
Dapatkan borang dengan klik di sini:
Penghantaran borang hendaklah melalui kaedah scan attachment dan e-mail ke kuemas@gmail.com atau melalui pos ke alamat :
Koperasi Usahawan Emas Malaysia Berhad (Dalam Penubuhan)
1-3B Tingkat 3, Jalan 15/1C Seksyen 15,
Bandar Baru Bangi 43650 Bangi,
Selangor Darul Ehsan

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Kepada yang telah mendaftar sila rujuk kepada En. Rulan (012-2968789) atau En. Hafiz (017-2361609) untuk tindakan dan keterangan lanjut.

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Kepada yang berminat tetapi belum mendaftar juga dijemput untuk menghadirkan diri ke majlis Mesyuarat Agung Permulaan.

Butiran lanjut adalah seperti berikut:

TARIKH : Sabtu, 9hb May 2009
MASA : 9.00 pagi – 1.00 petang
TEMPAT : Victoria Institute Old Boys Association (VIOBA)Kuala Lumpur

Sila buat pengesahan kehadiran anda kepada En Rizmeer 012-2776294 bagi memudahkan urusan persiapan dan melancarkan lagi perjalanan majlis.
Kerjasama dari semua dalam memberi maklumbalas atau tindakan susulan amat saya hargai bagi kelancaran urusan penubuhan.

Sekian untuk makluman.
Peta Ke Victoria Institute Old Boys Association (VIOBA)Kuala Lumpur: